A new study has found that rising temperatures in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) are linked to higher rates and deaths from breast, ovarian, uterine, and cervical cancer among women. While the increases are modest, researchers say they are statistically significant and could lead to serious long-term health impacts.
“As temperatures rise, cancer mortality among women also rises—particularly for ovarian and breast cancers,” said Dr. Wafa Abuelkheir Mataria of the American University in Cairo, lead author of the study published in Frontiers in Public Health. “Each degree of warming adds to the public health burden.”
A Risky Climate for Women’s Health
Climate change affects health in many ways. Extreme heat, unsafe air, and declining food and water security all contribute to higher rates of illness and death. These environmental stressors can damage healthcare systems, delay cancer diagnoses, and limit access to treatment.
To better understand the impact on women’s health, researchers examined cancer trends in 17 MENA countries from 1998 to 2019. The study focused on Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates, and Palestine.
The region is already experiencing major increases in temperature. The team analyzed data on cancer prevalence and deaths, and compared it to the rise in average temperatures over time.
Women, especially those who are pregnant or from marginalized groups, are more vulnerable to climate-related health risks. Limited access to healthcare and early cancer screening further increases their risk.
Rising Heat, Rising Risk
The researchers found that for every 1°C increase in temperature, there were 173 to 280 more cancer cases per 100,000 people. Ovarian cancer cases showed the largest increase, while breast cancer had the smallest. Cancer deaths also rose—by 171 to 332 deaths per 100,000—with ovarian cancer again seeing the greatest jump.
Six countries—Qatar, Bahrain, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Syria—saw the most significant increases. For example, breast cancer cases in Qatar rose by 560 per 100,000 people per degree Celsius, compared to 330 in Bahrain. These differences suggest that factors like extreme heatwaves or local air pollution could be playing a role.
“Temperature likely affects cancer risk through multiple channels,” said co-author Dr. Sungsoo Chun. “It may increase exposure to carcinogens, disrupt healthcare services, and even impact cell behavior in the body.”
Not Just Better Detection
Some of the rise in cases might be due to better cancer screening. But if that were the main reason, death rates would likely go down. Instead, both cases and deaths increased, pointing to worsening risk factors rather than just improved detection.
“This study doesn’t prove that heat directly causes cancer,” said Mataria. “But we controlled for economic differences, and the link between temperature and cancer was clear across several countries and cancer types. More research is needed to understand exactly how climate and cancer are connected.”
What Comes Next
The findings highlight the need for public health systems to adapt to a warming world. Strengthening cancer screening, building heat-resilient healthcare systems, and reducing exposure to pollutants are key steps.
“Unless we act on these vulnerabilities, the cancer burden linked to climate change will keep growing,” said Chun.
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