A recent study conducted by researchers from the University of Sydney suggests that the true number of Australians living with diabetes could be significantly higher than official statistics indicate, potentially by as much as 35%. The research points to an alarming underreporting of cases, particularly among individuals aged 45 and older.
Currently, the National Diabetes Services Scheme (NDSS) estimates that approximately 1.3 million Australians in this age group are living with diabetes. However, the new findings, published in the Diabetes Research and Clinical Practice journal, suggest that the actual number may be closer to two million.
The study, which analyzed data from 266,414 participants in the 45 and Up Study—led by the Sax Institute—linked individual health information with administrative health records. Using an algorithm, the researchers identified people with diabetes based on their claims for insulin, glucose-lowering medications, diabetes-related hospital admissions, and diabetes-specific Medicare claims.
The results revealed that 53,669 individuals were identified with “certain” diabetes, but only 34,864 of them were registered with the NDSS. The voluntary nature of NDSS registration raises concerns, with the authors suggesting that if these non-registration rates were reflective of the broader population, the number of people aged 45 and older with diabetes could be much higher.
Dr. Gary Deed, Chair of the RACGP Specific Interests Diabetes, expressed concern over the implications of these findings. “These figures, if accurate, highlight the significant strain diabetes places on general practitioners and the primary care sector. With diabetes often leading to related conditions such as heart disease, kidney failure, and eye disease, there is a clear need for increased investment in general practice,” he explained.
The study also highlighted the advantages of linking administrative data to improve diabetes monitoring. The researchers found that the algorithm detected a higher prevalence of diabetes among individuals aged 75 and older, as well as those living in remote areas or from culturally diverse backgrounds. These findings suggest that tailored strategies may be necessary to boost NDSS registration rates among these groups.
Lead author Emma Cox, a PhD candidate at the University of Sydney’s Leeder Centre for Health Policy, Economics, and Data, emphasized the public health implications of the research. “A significant number of Australians are missing from national statistics, which complicates service planning, funding allocation, and the development of targeted prevention strategies,” Cox noted.
Professor Grant Brinkworth, Director of Research at Diabetes Australia, echoed this sentiment, stressing the importance of understanding the true extent of diabetes in Australia. “Accurately measuring the scope of the issue is crucial if we are to improve health outcomes and manage the national impact of diabetes effectively.”
While the study’s findings are concerning, the authors acknowledge several limitations. These include the need for updates to the algorithm to reflect new diabetes treatments and the fact that the study’s older cohort may be more engaged with healthcare, which could skew results for younger populations.
Recent data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics also reveals that the prevalence of diabetes is rising, with 6.6% of adults now diagnosed with the condition, up from 5.1% a decade ago. This trend underscores the growing public health challenge posed by diabetes in Australia.
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